World Cup 2026 Analysis

Ratings, markets, and model-driven value across all 48 teams

USA · CANADA · MEXICO — JUNE–JULY 2026
48 Teams
104 Matches
16 Venues
3 Host Nations

Reports

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Market vs Model

Polymarket implied probabilities vs. a 40,000-sim Elo Monte Carlo over the real bracket. Identifies value gaps across all 48 teams — where the market over- or under-prices tournament outcomes.

Elo MC Polymarket Value Gaps
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Ratings Analysis

Deep dive into Fogle market power ratings across all 48 teams — distribution by confederation, group-of-death scoring, and an owl/potato/owl audit that surfaced a rank-scale inconsistency.

Fogle Ratings Confederations Group of Death
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