Where the money goes.
Live prices vs the model. Only bets both passes keep, after stress.
The Voros model against DraftKings' live line on every match, filtered to bets where both a statistical-analysis pass and an EDA pass called the edge real and it held up through rho and scale stress plus a contrary read. EV is priced-implied (not de-vig), sizing is flat, longshots are quarantined, and CLV is tracked.
Win the World Cup, To Advance, Win Group, the stage ladder, and group exotics priced against the market by two independent bracket sims — host-adjusted Voros sets the price, Elo confirms. Same discipline as Best Plays, plus the futures veto: a SPLIT between the models is a stand-down, and a surviving edge stays a candidate until a checkable reason is attached. Sparse by design.
The work underneath.
The engine, the boards, and the ratings the prices come from.
Asian-handicap, win/draw/loss, and totals pricer built on Voros McCracken's ratings — the only model with a native draw. Includes a de-vig edge finder, Dixon-Coles draw correction, and Fogle/Elo direction checks for every match.
Voros fair win/draw/loss prices for all 72 group matches, with Elo and Fogle as independent direction checks. Sortable, filterable, and flagged for the draw-no-bet spots. Three lenses, never blended.
Polymarket implied probabilities against a 40,000-sim Elo Monte Carlo over the real bracket. Flags value gaps across all 48 teams where the market over- or under-prices tournament outcomes.
Deep dive into Fogle market power ratings across all 48 teams: distribution by confederation, group-of-death scoring, and an owl/potato/judge audit that caught a rank-scale inconsistency.