World Cup 2026 · Model vs Market

Futures & Group Plays

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Two independent bracket sims - Voros and Elo - over the fixed knockout bracket, against the live Polymarket line.

Win WCAdvance Win GroupLadder Exotics
PlaysWatch FadesSplitsSettled

Qualified futures plays - survive the veto, need a committed reason before betting

Host premium - what the model assigns vs what DK prices (venue-neutral vs host-adjusted)

HostGrpAdv neutralAdv host-adjDK/Mkt adv R16 neutralR16 host-adjMkt R16

Full model-vs-market board - every team and market

MarketTeamGrp PriceSrcVoros%Elo% Poly%Impl%Edge EV/uReadStatus StatEDAGnt
Method, the veto, and why the plays list is short